Application of Logistics Growth Model in Determining Population Projection in Banyumas Regency

Abstract

Abstract:  Application of Logistics Growth Model in Determining Population Projection in Banyumas Regency. Banyumas Regency is one of the regencies in Central Java which has the third-largest population density with an area of ​​1,328 km². Based on data from BPS, the population in Banyumas Regency is increasing every year, so a solution is needed to reduce the negative impact so that there is no population explosion. The solution that can be used to project the population in Banyumas Regency is to use a logistic growth model. This model is used to calculate the value of the growth rate and carrying capacity using data on the population in Banyumas Regency from 2015 to 2021. The results obtained show that the carrying capacity that limits the population in Banyumas Regency is 2,127,490.49 with an annual relative growth rate of 7.75%. This model also projects the population in Banyumas Regency from 2022 to 2030. With calculations using Microsoft Excel, it is obtained that the projected population in Banyumas Regency in 2022 is 1,811,059 people until 2030 estimated at 1,944,653 people.

Keywords: Banyumas Regency, Logistics Growth Model, carrying capacity, population, solution